Probable perils of new technology

Using mobile phones, especially smartphones, while driving is dangerous.  Yet our chief consultant concludes it’s not dangerous enough!

Our chief consultant writes:

Our office is in Old Town Alexandria, Virginia, not far from US Highway 1.  During most of the day there’s heavy traffic on this road; it requires alertness and concentration to drive on it through the crowded residential district.  And yet our consultants routinely count between one in ten and one in three drivers talking on mobile phones, looking down at smartphones, even texting while in motion.

There’s no doubt that it’s dangerous.  I’ve seen a statistic that something like one-fourth of serious accidents are due to using phones while driving; the actual fraction is probably higher, since it’s not always easy to make the connection, but we’ll take this number as reasonably accurate.

I assert, however, that it’s not dangerous enough.  To put it in terms that our consultants will understand: probabilities change, depending on whether you work forward or backward.  Given that you’ve had an accident, the probability of misuse of a phone is about 25%; but given that you’re misusing your phone, the probability that you’ll have an accident is much lower than one in four.  You can get away with it, often for a long time.  And since people base their predictions of the future on what they themselves have experienced in the past, they conclude that texting while driving is safe.

If it were more dangerous, so that everyone knew someone with a texting-accident story (getting them to admit it would be hard, of course), it would not be seen as safe.  Fewer people would do it.  Here’s the paradox: if using your phone while driving were more dangerous, it would be safer.

I am not suggesting that we actually do something to make it so!  That would be a bad idea for many reasons.  Apart from ethical and legal aspects, people are very good at doing unexpected things.

But they’re poor at estimating risk.  They’ll check their facebook page while on the highway without a thought, but spend days worrying about a possible slight cancer risk from some unknown chemical.  It maybe a cynical thought, but self-driving cars can’t come about too soon for me.